在伪偶然事件中缺乏群体对个体的概括性
Jiri Kaan1, Sonja Kunz2,3, Spencer Moore4
1Health and Society, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN, Wageningen, The Netherlands. jiri.kaan@wur.nl.
Scientific reports
|February 25, 2026
概括
人们经常使用伪偶然性推断形成信念,而不仅仅是共同发生. 在这种信念形成过程中的个人差异是显著的,不同依赖于伪偶然性.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策 决策 决策 决策
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 人类通常使用伪偶然性推断来形成关于变量关系的信念.
- 这个过程依赖于单独的变量发生,而不是共同发生.
- 对于伪偶然性依赖的个体差异仍然不太了解.
研究的目的:
- 为了正式化和量化个体的差异依赖伪偶然性与实际偶然性.
- 调查关于不健康食物的味道作为伪偶然效应的信念形成.
- 为了比较个人层面和团体层面的伪偶然性依赖模型.
主要方法:
- 利用了关于信念形成的先前实验的数据.
- 通过校准偏差强度参数,估计依赖伪偶然情况.
- 应用了个人层面和团体层面的建模方法.
主要成果:
- 个人通常更多地依赖伪偶然性,而不是实际偶然性.
- 在不同个体的伪偶然性依赖程度上存在显著的差异.
- 个人级别的模型显示,与群组级别的模型相比,对伪偶然事件的中位数依赖程度降低了22-28%.
结论:
- 伪偶然性依赖在个人之间有很大差异.
- 群体级模型可能会高估伪偶然性依赖,因为缺乏对个体的概括性.
- 这些发现挑战了假设信念形成仅仅基于实际偶然情况的规范模型.
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