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城市感染易感指数及其在中国城市的应用

Wei Yan¹, Jianping Huang^1,2, Xinbo Lian^2,3

¹College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.

Biosafety and health

|February 26, 2026

概括

一个新的城市感染易感指数 (UISI) 通过结合人类活动和气候数据来量化城市的传染病风险. 该工具有助于识别高风险地区,以防止未来的流行病.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
流行病学流行病学
城市规划城市规划

背景情况:

传染病对全球健康和安全构成重大挑战,气候变化加剧了这一问题.
识别疾病爆发的高风险城市地区对于有效的公共卫生反应至关重要.
目前还没有标准化衡量城市传染病风险的指标.

研究的目的:

开发和验证城市感染易感指数 (UISI) 以量化城市的流行风险.
将人类活动和气候相关因素纳入全面的风险评估工具中.
为制定政策提供科学基础,以预防和控制传染病的传播.

主要方法:

通过结合人类活动指标 (人口密度,连接,服务,可访问性) 和气候因素 (温度,PM2.5,风,湿度) 来构建UISI.
利用标准间相关性方法来确定因素的重要性,并生成细度易感性地图.
应用并验证了UISI在兰州和上海的COVID-19风险评估.

主要成果:

在城市电网层面上,UISI有效地识别和量化易感性风险.
该指数在兰州和上海的现实世界COVID-19风险评估中显示出准确性.
预测的UISI趋势显示,在SSP5-8.5和SSP2-4.5情景下,从2025年到2100年的风险增加.

结论:

在全球范围内,UISI提供了一种易于计算和有效的方法来评估城市传染病风险.
该指数为快速制定和实施政策以制流行病传播提供了关键数据.
未来的气候和社会经济路径表明,城市感染易感性趋势正在上升.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化传染病传染病传染病公共卫生公共卫生风险评估风险评估风险评估易感性指数是指易感性指数.

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