在中国的气候变化情景下预测侵袭性植物Alternanthera pungens Kunth的潜在分布
Fengping Zheng1,2,3, Wei Zhang4, Qiurui Li1,5
1Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences Kunming China.
Ecology and evolution
|February 26, 2026
概括
在中国, Alternanthera pungens 正在迅速蔓延. 气候变化将使其适合的息地向北扩大,需要预警和监测,特别是在中国南部.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵袭性物种管理 侵袭性物种管理
- 生物地理学 生物地理学 生物地理学
背景情况:
- 虽然 Alternanthera pungens 被认为比同类更少入侵,但在过去的十年中,它在中国云南省迅速蔓延.
- 了解A. pungens的分布动态对于在中国有效管理入侵物种至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在当前和未来的气候场景下,模拟中国Alternanthera pungens的潜在分布.
- 确定影响物种分布的关键环境变量.
- 预测A. pungens在中国的未来扩散情况.
主要方法:
- 利用MaxEnt建模方法来预测物种分布.
- 整合了当前和各种未来的气候场景 (不同的排放和时间框架).
- 使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和真实技能统计 (TSS) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出卓越的预测性能 (AUC=0.979,TSS=0.910).
- 温度季节性和最冷季度的平均温度是最重要的环境预测因素.
- 适合息地目前集中在中国南部,但预计到2070年代将向北扩张,潜在增长率为41.4%.
结论:
- 预计在未来的气候变化下,Alternanthera pungens将在中国显著扩大其范围.
- 积极的预警系统和有针对性的监测是必不可少的,特别是在中国南部,以减轻进一步的传播和入侵.
- 这项研究为制定有效的入侵物种管理战略以应对气候变化提供了关键的见解.
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