缩小差距:通过先进的例行数据分析,改进莫桑比克的疫苗预测和补给计算
Wendy Prosser1, Laila A Akhlaghi1, Santos Sipaneque1
1JSI Research and Training Institute, 2733 Crystal Drive, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.
Vaccines
|February 26, 2026
概括
在莫桑比克,准确的疫苗补给需要超越基于人口的预测. 设施级数据和量身定制的浪费率是防止缺货和确保免疫计划的疫苗可用性的关键.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
背景情况:
- 卫生机构的疫苗库存不足阻碍了免疫计划的有效性.
- 不准确的人口估计和预测方法导致供应链效率低下.
- 本研究检查了莫桑比克的设施级数据,以改善疫苗供应链管理.
研究的目的:
- 分析常规设施级数据,以改善疫苗供应链管理.
- 为莫桑比克的设施层面的补给决策提供见解.
- 评估基于人口的预测与替代方法的准确性.
主要方法:
- 从2023年8月到10月的常规设施级数据的回顾性分析.
- 评估浪费率,会话队列数据和预测准确度.
- 基于人口的预测与BCG剂量管理作为代理的比较.
主要成果:
- 设施级浪费率显示出显著的差异,与地区和全球标准不同.
- 接种疫苗剂量的分歧与停产期相关.
- 基于人口的预测导致设施供应不足20%,而BCG剂量代理供应过剩12%,差异较小.
结论:
- 目前基于人口的预测方法对于疫苗补给是不够的.
- 利用设施级数据,量身定制的浪费率和调整的库存政策可以提高疫苗的可用性.
- 转变预测方法对于有效的免疫供应链至关重要.
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