负排放减轻地球系统风险的负排放
Thomas Gasser1, Armon Rezai2,3, Côme Cheritel2,4
1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. gasser@iiasa.ac.at.
Nature communications
|February 26, 2026
概括
预先将不确定性纳入气候政策揭示了新的战略. 这种方法需要更早的零净二氧化碳排放和计划的负净排放,以减轻地球系统的长期风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
背景情况:
- 当前的气候政策往往假定一个决定性的地球系统,回顾评估影响.
- 积极的方法整合不确定性预测地球系统风险是不发达的.
研究的目的:
- 制定全球气候战略,使用包含物理不确定性的预先方法.
- 通过预防措施确定减轻地球系统风险的气候战略.
主要方法:
- 利用综合评估框架,将地球系统模型和观测数据的贝叶斯融合结合起来.
- 在地球系统内估计的物理不确定性.
主要成果:
- 预先策略需要提前实现零净二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放,可能需要十年.
- 短期内,碳价格可能需要翻一番.
- 长期风险减缓需要持续的负净排放,而不是超标场景.
结论:
- 将前期的不确定性纳入气候战略开发中,为管理地球系统风险提供了更强大的方法.
- 这需要对排放目标和经济工具进行重大调整.
- 应对长期风险需要在气候政策设计中进行范式转变.
相关概念视频
Global Climate Change
29.2K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
29.2K
The Carbon Cycle
44.7K
Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.
44.7K
Radiation: Applications
1.9K
The average temperature of Earth is the subject of much current discussion. Earth is in radiative contact with both the Sun and dark space; it receives almost all its energy from the radiation of the Sun and reflects some of it into outer space. Dark space is very cold, about 3 K, so Earth radiates energy into it. For instance, heat transfer occurs from soil and grasses, the rate of which can be so rapid that frost can occur on clear summer evenings, even in warm latitudes.
The average...
The average...
1.9K
Bioremediation
22.6K
Bioremediation is the use of prokaryotes, fungi, or plants to remove pollutants from the environment. This process has been used to remove harmful toxins in groundwater as a byproduct of agricultural run-off and also to clean up oil spills.
22.6K
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
28.3K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
28.3K
What is Climate?
21.1K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
21.1K


