用不确定性决策的 entropy 方法
1Institute of Computer Science, University of Silesia in Katowice, Bedzinska 39, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|February 27, 2026
概括
不确定性是复杂的社会技术系统固有的. 本研究探讨了管理这种不确定性的方法,以提高系统的弹性和性能.
科学领域:
- 社会技术系统分析分析
- 复杂性科学是一门复杂性科学.
- 系统工程是系统工程.
背景情况:
- 复杂的社会技术系统的特点是固有的不确定性.
- 传统的管理方法往往无法充分解决这种普遍的不确定性.
- 了解和管理不确定性对于系统的稳定性和有效性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究复杂的社会技术系统中不确定性的性质.
- 提出和评估用于管理系统性不确定性的新框架.
- 提高这些系统的弹性和适应能力.
主要方法:
- 系统动态建模系统动态建模
- 基于代理的模拟模型
- 场景规划 场景规划 场景规划
- 风险评估技巧 风险评估技巧
主要成果:
- 确定了不确定性的关键来源和传播途径.
- 开发了一个多层次的不确定性管理框架.
- 在不确定性下证明了改进的系统性能和弹性.
结论:
- 有效的不确定性管理是通过综合框架实现的.
- 积极的战略可以显著减轻不确定性的负面影响.
- 这项研究为更强大的社会技术系统设计提供了基础.
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