在秘鲁伊洛的COVID-19封锁期间反直觉PM2.5增加:沿海气象和心血管影响
José Antonio Valeriano-Zapana1,2, Mario Román Flores-Roque1, Leonel Alonso Paccosonco-Sucapuca2
1Grupo de Investigación en Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo del Perú (IINDEP), Universidad Nacional de Moquegua (UNAM), Prolongación Ciudad Jardín s/n, Ilo 18611, Peru.
由于COVID-19的限制影响了秘鲁的空气质量. 虽然二氧化和二氧化硫减少,但颗粒物 (PM2.5) 增加,凸显了沿海气象在空气质量方面的作用.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19的流行,提供了一个独特的机会来研究由于排放减少而导致的空气质量变化.
- 关于这些变化的拉丁美洲沿海工业城市的证据有限.
- 作为一个中型沿海工业城市的秘鲁伊洛 (Ilo) 被检查,以了解疫情期间的空气质量动态.
研究的目的:
- 评估COVID-19限制对秘鲁伊洛市空气质量的影响.
- 研究气象变异性在调节这些空气质量反应中的作用.
- 估计与PM2.5度变化相关的健康影响,特别是心血管死亡率.
主要方法:
- 2020年1月至12月每日PM10,PM2.5,NO2,O3和SO2度的分析.
- 多重线性回归,差异分解和随机森林模型的应用.
- 使用2021年全球疾病负担系数估计死亡率的健康影响评估.
主要成果:
- 在早期重新开放期间,尽管活动减少,但颗粒物 (PM2.5) 增加了34%.
- 在冬季,二氧化 (NO2) 持续下降 (13-19%),二氧化硫 (SO2) 显著下降 (高达65%),而臭氧 (O3) 增加了一倍以上 (+108%).
- 气象学解释了几乎所有的臭氧变化 (98%),而PM2.5和NO2显示了气象学和限制 (每一个约50%) 的平衡贡献.
结论:
- 沿海气象条件可能会抵消减排效益,导致空气质量出现意想不到的结果.
- 增加的PM2.5与估计每年每10万人口增加3例额外的心血管死亡有关.
- 气象正常化对于准确评估沿海工业区的空气质量政策至关重要.
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