人类活动和气候变化加快了Hyphantria cunea在中国的传播风险
Mu Duan1,2, Jing Ning2,3, Gejiao Wang2,4
1Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Forest Resources and Silviculture, School of Forestry & Landscape Architecture, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China.
Insects
|February 27, 2026
概括
人类定居密度,而不是气候,推动了入侵性秋季网虫 (Hyphantria cunea) 的传播. 城市地区的风险最大,预计在高排放场景下继续扩张.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵入性物种 生物学 生物学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 由于人类活动和气候变化,生物入侵正在加速.
- 侵袭性秋季网虫 (Hyphantria cunea) 呈现出与气候异常和人类定居点相关的爆发模式.
研究的目的:
- 为了建模Hyphantria cunea.ea的合适息地.
- 预测不同气候场景下其分布的未来变化.
- 确定其息地适合性的关键驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 集合物种分布建模 (随机森林,MaxEnt,支持矢量机).
- 对气候,森林结构和人类定居密度变量的分析.
- 在SSP5-8.5排放路径下预测未来的息地适应性.
主要成果:
- 人类定居密度是影响息地适宜性的主要因素 (>50%).
- 目前非常适合的地区包括北京-天津-河北,东半岛和中国北方平原.
- 预计适合息地将扩大,特别是在高排放场景下.
结论:
- 城市化密集的地区需要优先监测和控制Hyphantria cunea.
- 随着气候持续变暖,中国东北部面临着不断升级的入侵风险.
- 这些发现指导了针对入侵物种的特定区域的监测和管理策略.
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