多重动作性角质瘤患者的临床特征和局部复发风险:回顾性临床数据分析
Zhaogui Liu1, Yaping Tang2, Ping He1
1Department of Dermatology, Changde Hospital, Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University (The First People's Hospital of Changde City), Changde, Hunan, China.
Frontiers in oncology
|February 27, 2026
概括
患有多重动态角质瘤 (AKs) 的患者面临局部复发的显著风险,病变数量较高和治疗反应不完整是关键预测因素. 一个经过验证的考克斯模型和名录图有助于识别高风险个体以优化管理.
科学领域:
- 皮肤病学 皮肤病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 行动性角质瘤 (AKs) 是一种常见的癌前皮肤病变.
- 多个AKs增加了局部复发和潜在进展到状细胞癌的风险.
- 需要预测模型来分层复发风险和指导治疗策略.
研究的目的:
- 评估多个AKS患者的局部复发风险.
- 为了确定影响复发的宿主,病变和治疗因素.
- 开发和验证用于预测AK复发的考克斯回归模型.
主要方法:
- 对148名多重AK患者的回顾性研究 (2019年1月至2022年2月).
- 对累积复发率的卡普兰-梅尔分析.
- 多变量考克斯回归和nomogram开发用于风险预测和验证.
主要成果:
- 在12,24和36个月的累计复发率分别为22.3%,35.6%和44.7%.
- 复发的独立风险因素包括较高的病变数量 (11-20病变:HR=2.39;>20病变:HR=2.96) 和不完整的治疗反应 (HR=2.43).
- 考克斯模型显示了中度的歧视 (C指数=0.630) 和良好的校准 (布赖尔分数=0.176).
结论:
- 损伤负担和不完整的治疗反应是多个AK中复发的重要预测因素.
- 开发的考克斯模型和名图为个性化风险评估提供了临床上有用的工具.
- 优化管理策略可以在预测模型中识别的高风险患者中实施.
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