1990年至2040年的中国大麻使用障碍:发病率趋势和未来预测
1School of Government, Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, Shanghai, China.
Substance use & misuse
|February 27, 2026
概括
从1990年到2021年,中国的大麻使用障碍 (CUD) 显著增加,预计将进一步增加. 年轻一代表现出更高的风险,这表明单独禁止可能无法预防CUD.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 药物使用障碍 药物使用障碍
背景情况:
- 大麻使用障碍 (CUD) 在全球范围内带来不断变化的公共卫生挑战.
- 中国的监管环境为研究CUD发病率趋势提供了一个独特的背景.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析中国CUD发病率的历史趋势.
- 预测到2040年,中国未来的CUD发病率.
- 确定中国CUD的人口和队列特异性风险因素.
主要方法:
- 利用的全球疾病负担 (GBD) 2021研究数据.
- 员工结合点回归和年龄-时期-队列分析用于趋势检查.
- 应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列建模用于未来预测.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2021年期间,中国的CUD年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 从每10万人中从29.55上升至36.29.
- 预计到2040年,每10万人口的ASIR将达到68.48.
- 男性的CUD发病率高于女性;发病率在20-29岁年龄组达到顶峰.
- 从2014年到2021年,人们观察到发病率的显著增加,年轻人群面临更高的风险.
结论:
- 中国CUD发病率上升和队列效应表明禁用政策的局限性.
- 与大麻有关的疾病预防和干预策略需要重新评估.
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