平流层前体诱导冬季阶段逆转的"温暖的北极-寒冷的欧亚大陆"模式
Yijia Zhang1,2, Zhicong Yin3,4, Wenshou Tian5
1State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
Nature communications
|February 27, 2026
概括
北极的变暖速度很快,但欧亚大陆有时会变冷. 在"温暖的北极 - 寒冷的欧亚大陆"逆转之前,平流层极地的变化会影响冬季天气模式.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 北极地区的放大.
背景情况:
- 北极的变暖速度是全球平均水平的2-4倍.
- 一个"温暖的北极-寒冷的欧亚大陆" (WACE) 模式显示了冬季早期和冬季后期之间的频繁相位逆转.
- 平流层在WACE逆转中的作用尚未得到充分理解.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究平流层对WACE模式逆转的影响.
- 为了确定平流层前体和驱动WACE相变的机制.
主要方法:
- 对平流层极地形态过渡 (拉伸/收缩) 的分析.
- 研究平流层信号的垂直波合和向下传播.
- 对比CMIP6高顶和低顶模型模拟WACE事件.
主要成果:
- 在北美-北大西洋上空的平流层极地形态过渡在WACE逆转之前约25天.
- 这些平流层变化调节大气循环,推动WACE逆转.
- 具有完全平流层过程的CMIP6模型模拟WACE逆转链接;低顶模型没有.
结论:
- 对于理解WACE逆转来说,平流层与热层的合至关重要.
- 平流层极地的动态是冬季气候转变的关键前体.
- 这些发现增强了对通过平流层影响的冷热过渡事件的理解.
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