在两个国家小组数据集中的不良生活事件的同时发生和累积的非随机模式
Kyra Evers1, Denny Borsboom2, Eiko Fried3
1Psychological Methods, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. kyra.c.evers@gmail.com.
Communications psychology
|February 27, 2026
概括
生命中不良事件 (ALEs) 经常聚集并随着时间的推移而积累,增加未来事件的风险. 在理解这些模式方面,个人和家庭之间的差异比过去的ALEs更为重要的预测因素.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 不良生活事件 (ALEs) 显著影响身体和心理健康.
- 虽然已知ALE的风险因素,但随着时间的推移,ALE发生的模式不太了解.
研究的目的:
- 调查不良生命事件集群和积累的模式.
- 为了确定ALEs是否随着时间的推移随机或非随机的积累过程.
主要方法:
- 利用了通用的线性混合效应模型.
- 从两个大型纵向面板数据集分析每年自我报告的ALEs:瑞士家庭面板和澳大利亚家庭,收入和劳动力动力调查.
- 在20年的时间里检查了ALEs之间的同时期和滞后-1关联.
主要成果:
- 确定了ALEs之间显著的同时性和滞后-1关联,表明非随机模式.
- 20年来ALE计数的累积偏离了随机过程,这表明过去ALE增加未来风险的自我强化机制.
- 个人和家庭之间的差异比先前或同时发生的ALEs更强烈地预测ALE的发生.
结论:
- 生命中不良事件的累积是一个非随机的,自我强化的过程.
- 了解这些非随机模式对于完善ALEs的概念和统计模型至关重要.
- 调查结果应该为制定更有效的预防策略提供信息,以预防不良生活事件及其对健康的影响.
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