1990-2021年,中国的胃病负担:根据GBD 2021研究的更新
Bei Chen Guo1, Guang Ming Niu1, Yu Han Li2
1Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China.
Annals of medicine
|February 28, 2026
概括
自1990年以来,中国的胃潰瘍疾病 (PUD) 负担显著下降,但在老年人和男性中仍然很大. 为未来的PUD预防,建议继续进行烟草控制和有针对性的策略.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 胃潰瘍疾病 (PUD) 是中國的主要消化健康問題.
- 关键的促成因素包括Helicobacter pylori感染,NSAID使用和人口结构变化.
- 评估长期的PUD负担对于有效的公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1990年到2021年的中国PUD的发病率,死亡率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs).
- 通过估计年度百分比变化 (EAPC) 来评估时间趋势.
- 使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型来预测未来的PUD趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 的数据.
- 计算EAPC以评估PUD率的趋势.
- 采用分解分析和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型进行预测.
主要成果:
- 根据年龄标准化的PUD发病率,死亡率和DALY率在1990年至2021年期间大幅下降.
- 尽管下降,但在55岁及以上的成年人中,PUD的绝对负担很高,在男性中更高.
- 流行病学变化推动了下降,部分由人口老龄化抵消;吸烟是唯一量化风险因素.
结论:
- 在过去的三十年中,中国的PUD年龄标准化负担大幅下降.
- 然而,绝对负担仍然很大,特别是在老年人和男性中.
- 考虑到人口老龄化带来的挑战,持续的烟草控制和针对高风险群体的有针对性的预防至关重要.
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