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Updated: Mar 1, 2026

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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在气候和土地利用变化下的浅低地湖泊的食物网稳定性的可转让的流域湖泊框架
Zhen Cui1, Gang Li2, Sven Frei3
1Key Laboratory Carbon Source and Sink-China of Ecosystem Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Journal of environmental management
|February 28, 2026
概括
湖泊食物网很容易受到气候变化和土地利用造成的营养污染的影响. 综合模型显示,变暖和负荷增加降低了湖泊的稳定性,影响了弹性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 临界技术 临界技术
背景情况:
- 浅浅的低地湖泊具有对营养投入敏感的简单食物网.
- 气候变化和土地利用是营养负载的关键驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 机械地评估气候变化和土地利用对湖泊食物网稳定性的相关影响.
- 在预测的环境场景下评估未来的湖泊弹性.
主要方法:
- 整合了PNDP模型 (捕捞营养出口) 与WET模型 (湖内食物网动态).
- 基于模拟的食物网相互作用计算了局部稳定性指数.
- 利用部分最小平方回归 (PLSR) 来确定稳定性的关键驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 模拟的营养负载梯度表明局部稳定性 (s < 1.0),更高的丰富度降低了稳定性.
- 预计20世纪50年代的场景显示,由于变暖 (+1.91°C) 和负荷增加,稳定性降低 (平均s=0.65).
- 温度是最强的破坏稳定的因素,其次是负荷;住宅用地破坏稳定,而田缓冲.
结论:
- 变暖和环保增强对湖泊的食物网造成了破坏稳定的影响.
- 综合建模对于支持以弹性为重点的湖泊管理战略是有价值的.
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