未来的全球每年冷地面分布数据集基于Kappa系数的冰数量模型
Xiaoduo Pan1, Hu Li1,2, Xiaowei Nie3,4,5
1National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Scientific data
|March 1, 2026
概括
气候变暖正在导致永久土融化,影响生态系统和基础设施. 新的研究项目预计,到2100年,结的土壤将有显著的损失,在高排放场景下,将有多达61%的结土壤消失.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 冰层科学 冰层科学
背景情况:
- 永久土覆盖了全球20%的陆地,很容易受到气候变化的影响.
- 永久土退化影响水文,碳循环,生态系统和基础设施.
- 准确预测未来的永久土分布是具有挑战性的.
研究的目的:
- 为了生成未来每年冷地面分布的高分辨率全球数据集.
- 优化表面冰指数 (SFI) 值,以提高永久土预测的准确性.
- 根据各种共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 评估永久土退化.
主要方法:
- 使用kappa系数准确性评估校准了一个优化的数值 (Fat).
- 将模拟输出与基准图进行比较,以确定最佳的Fat.
- 将校准值应用于缩小CMIP6数据 (0.25°分辨率) 的未来预测 (2020-2099).
主要成果:
- 在所有四个SSP场景中预计加速永久土退化.
- 据估计,本世纪中叶 (2040-2060年) 的冷地面损失为19-28%.
- 世纪末 (2080-2099) 的损失在21%至61%之间,SSP585.5的损失最高.
结论:
- 高分辨率的预测显示了永久土在未来的显著融化.
- 调查结果强调了对气候影响评估和适应战略的迫切需要.
- 优化的SFI值提高了永久土分布建模的准确性.
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