区域光伏扩张的意外环境风险:为可持续部署进行气候调整的生命周期分析
Jiawen Liu1, Liangzhong Li2, Yangyang Wu3
1Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, China; Department of Applied Biology and Chemical Technology, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Journal of environmental management
|March 1, 2026
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
- 可持续性研究 可持续性研究
背景情况:
- 中国光伏 (PV) 装置的指数式增长带来了退役模块管理的挑战.
- 传统的废物量化方法无法考虑特定地区对光伏降解的气候影响.
- 这导致了不准确的废物表征和低效的资源分配用于光伏回收.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个适应气候变化的模型,用于估计区域光伏寿命和预测废物产生.
- 评估光伏废弃物的环境影响,考虑到区域异质性和重金属泄漏.
- 评估未来气候变化情景对光伏降解和废物量的影响.
主要方法:
- 以气候调整的建模来估计区域光伏寿命 (1750年).
- 动态材料流分析和韦布尔分布用于废物产生预测.
- 增强生命周期评估 (LCA) 和纳入未来气候预测 (RCP场景).
主要成果:
- 气候调整后的废弃物预测与静态估计有很大差异,随着时间的推移,差异越来越大.
- 环境影响的区域异质性很大,由于重金属泄漏,对人类的毒性被低估了27%.
- 气候变化作为一个乘数,加速光伏降解,并可能增加未来的废物量和风险.
结论:
- 准确,气候知情的光伏废物管理对于中国的可持续性至关重要.
- 政策制定者和利益相关者需要数据驱动的框架来优化光伏部署和回收基础设施.
- 能源扩张和环境风险减轻的综合管理对于提高光伏可持续性至关重要.
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