过度死亡率不是自我解释:基线选择作为公共卫生分析中的治理问题
1Department of Nursing and Health Sciences, University of South-Eastern Norway, Porsgrunn, Norway.
Scandinavian journal of public health
|March 2, 2026
概括
选择正确的基线对于解释过度死亡率数据至关重要. 本评论强调需要在公共卫生监测中对基线定义进行明确的沟通,以防止对死亡率趋势的误解.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 对过度死亡率的准确解释在很大程度上取决于选择的基线.
- 最近在挪威 (2024) 的讨论强调了定义死亡基线的复杂性.
- 在基线选择中相互矛盾的目的可能导致误解.
研究的目的:
- 分析围绕挪威所有原因死亡率基线的辩论.
- 区分实时监测和疫情前轨迹评估的基线.
- 强调在报告死亡率数据时清楚沟通的重要性.
主要方法:
- 对现有文献和公共卫生话语的评论和批判性分析.
- 检查基线重新定义的推断和沟通后果.
- 专注于对死亡率分析的不同估计之间的区别.
主要成果:
- 关于死亡基线的辩论融合了两个不同的目的:实时监测和评估大流行前的趋势.
- 基线的重新定义对统计推断和公众沟通产生了重大影响.
- 不同的分析目标需要不同的估计值.
结论:
- 死亡率数据解释的主要风险源于不充分的沟通,而不是建模选择.
- 透明的报告与明确定义和标记的基线是必不可少的.
- 避免解释性偏移需要明确沟通基线方法.
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