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审查国家预期寿命:加拿大包括产前死亡的效果
Uzair Jamil1, Joshua M Pearce1,2
1Western University, London, ON, Canada.
The Linacre quarterly
|March 2, 2026
概括
目前的预期寿命计算排除了社会上不受欢迎的个人,扭曲了结果. 这项研究引入了一种包括所有个体的新方法,揭示了加拿大和全球预期寿命显著降低.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 当前的预期寿命计算通常会根据社会可取性排除某些人群.
- 这种排除掩盖了差异,并不准确地膨胀了报告的预期寿命.
- 需要一种更具包容性的方法来准确分析国家健康趋势.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的预期寿命计算方法,包括所有个人,不论社会是否可取.
- 评估这种方法对加拿大预期寿命估计的影响,从1970年到2020年,考虑到计划的产前死亡.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种修订后的预期寿命计算,包括通常被排除在标准评估之外的个人.
- 将该方法应用于1970年至2020年的加拿大数据,包括对计划产前死亡的分析.
- 将修订后的估计与官方预期寿命数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 2020年加拿大修订的预期寿命约为65.8岁,比官方估计的82.5岁低16.7岁.
- 当计算妊娠终止时,观察到预期寿命下降了20%.
- 官方估计与修订估计之间的最大差异为20.5年,发生在2002年.
结论:
- 加拿大公布的预期寿命是不准确的,因为有偏见的计算方法.
- 全球对预期寿命计算的重新评估是必要的,以确保准确性和公平性.
- 未来的计算必须考虑所有人的预期寿命,以避免偏差.
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