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墨西哥湾流的急剧路径变化是大西洋南部翻转循环的崩的前兆
René M van Westen1, Henk A Dijkstra1
1Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
概括
墨西哥湾流正在向北转移,这表明大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 可能会减弱. 这种海湾流的转变可能成为未来AMOC倾斜事件的早期警告.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 是一个关键的气候系统和一个潜在的倾斜元素.
- 在不断变化的环境条件下,AMOC可能容易崩.
- 湾流在AMOC倾斜事件中的具体作用仍然不太清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查AMOC和海湾流之间的关系.
- 确定海湾流的行为是否可以作为AMOC稳定性的指标.
主要方法:
- 使用高分辨率 (0.1°) 仅海洋模拟.
- 应用了一种缓慢增加的淡水强迫,以诱导AMOC崩.
- 分析了卫星高度测量和地下温度观测 (1965-2024年).
主要成果:
- 模拟的AMOC减弱导致海湾流在哈特拉斯角附近逐渐向北移动.
- 湾流突然向北移动 (2年内219公里) 在模拟的AMOC崩之前几十年.
- 在海湾流的位置 (1993-2024) 和地下温度 (1965-2024) 中观察到显著的北向趋势.
结论:
- 观测到的海湾流转移为正在进行的AMOC减弱提供了间接证据.
- 湾流路径的突然变化可以作为潜在的AMOC转折点的关键早期预警信号.
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