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在中国太原的气候场景下,预计可归因于极端温度的心血管死亡率
Yifei Chen1,2,3,4, Lin Ma5, Chaomin Ren1,2,3,4
1School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030001, China.
iScience
|March 2, 2026
概括
极端温度,如热浪和寒浪,显著增加心血管疾病 (CVD) 死亡率在太原. 未来的气候变化,特别是在高排放场景下,将加剧这种风险,突出了适应战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 在中国构成了重大公共卫生挑战.
- 包括热浪和寒浪在内的极端温度事件的频率正在增加,并带来新的健康风险.
- 了解气候变化对心血管疾病死亡率的影响对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据气候变化情景,评估未来的心血管疾病 (CVD) 死亡负担,该负担可归因于太原的极端温度.
- 分析热浪和寒浪对不同人口群体的影响差异.
- 评估适应措施在减轻与温度有关的健康风险方面的潜力.
主要方法:
- 利用了从2013年至2020年的历史死亡率数据.
- 采用分布式滞后非线性和通用添加模型 (DLNMs/GAMs) 来分析温度与死亡率的关系.
- 基于CMIP6和人口情景的综合未来气候预测.
主要成果:
- 热浪显示出立即的影响,妇女和老年人受到的影响不成比例.
- 寒冷的波浪延迟了冲击,对男性造成了更大的风险.
- 20世纪50年代的预测显示,在SSP5-8.5情景下,与SSP1-2.6.6相比,与热相关的死亡率增加了2.7倍.
- 适应措施显示了显著降低风险的潜力.
结论:
- 极端温度在太原对心血管疾病死亡率有很大影响.
- 预计气候变化将增加与温度相关的心血管疾病死亡率的负担,在不同情景和人口统计数据中产生不同的影响.
- 实施适应战略对于制定适应气候变化的卫生政策和保护公众健康免受极端温度影响至关重要.
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