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对单个中心葡萄牙人口的PathFx 3.0模型的外部验证
João Rosado1, Vera Vaz1, Sofia Miguel1
1Orthopaedics, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, PRT.
Cureus
|March 2, 2026
概括
该PathFx 3.0预后模型在预测葡萄牙骨转移患者的存活率方面表现良好,特别是在以后的时间点. 建议在更大的队列中进一步验证.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医学统计 医学统计
- 手术瘤学手术瘤学
背景情况:
- 该PathFx 3.0预后模型预测了骨转移性疾病患者的存活率.
- 外部验证对于评估模型在各种医疗保健系统中的适用性至关重要.
- 之前对PathFx 3.0的验证是广泛的,但其在特定的国家队列中的性能需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 在葡萄牙患者队列中对PathFx 3.0预后模型进行外部验证,该队列正在接受骨转移手术.
- 评估模型的预测准确性和校准,在现实世界的临床环境下,在其原始开发群体之外.
主要方法:
- 在2018年1月至2023年4月期间,对49名骨转移手术的患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 在手术后的1,3,6,12和24个月计算了生存概率.
- 使用接收器操作特征曲线下的面积 (AUC-ROC),Brier分数和校准分析来评估性能.
主要成果:
- 通过PathFx 3.0模型,随着时间的推移,差异化得到了改善,AUC值从1个月的0.495到12个月的0.791.
- 布里尔分数表明预测准确度中等,值在0.172到0.246.6之间.
- 校准分析显示预测和观察到的生存时间之间存在很好的一致性,除了在手术后的立即阶段.
结论:
- 在研究的葡萄牙人群中,PathFx 3.0显示出良好的预后表现,支持其在转移性骨病患者的临床决策中使用.
- 该模型对早期生存预测 (1个月) 的准确性有限,但它对长期预测具有价值.
- 建议在更大,多中心的葡萄牙队列中进一步验证,以确认这些发现并提高可通用性.
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