风险工具预测低智力和有性犯罪史的男性的复发率
R Karl Hanson1,2, Kelly M Babchishin1, Kelsey May1
1Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Sexual abuse : a journal of research and treatment
|March 2, 2026
概括
风险评估工具显示,对于性犯罪的智力较低的男性,准确度中等. 像ARMIDILO-S这样的特定工具表现最好,工作人员报告比官方记录更有效地衡量复发性犯罪.
科学领域:
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 智力障碍研究 智力障碍研究
背景情况:
- 标准化风险评估对于基于证据的应对犯罪行为,包括性犯罪至关重要.
- 许多风险评估工具存在,但是在使用不分化群体开发的,质疑它们对智力较低的人等子组的有用性.
研究的目的:
- 通过元分析来评估犯罪和暴力风险工具的预测准确性,这些工具适用于智力低且有性犯罪史的男性.
- 检查年龄作为该人口中复发性犯罪的预测因素.
主要方法:
- 15个不同的样本的元分析 (N=923).
- 评估各种风险评估工具的预测准确性 (歧视性).
- 通过工作人员报告与官方记录衡量检查的复发率.
主要成果:
- 年龄对性,暴力和一般性复发行为表现出中等到大的影响.
- 风险仪器的总体预测准确度中等,与其他群体相比.
- 在研究的措施中,ARMIDILO-S显示了最高的预测准确性.
- 工作人员报告显示,再犯的效果大小比官方记录更大.
结论:
- 现有的风险评估工具被支持用于智力能力较低的男性.
- 工作人员报告是首选的官方记录对研究的性复发性在这个群体.
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