比较后勤回归和人工神经网络模型,分析老年人医疗保险利用率和成本
Jie Chen1,2,3,4, Seyeon Jang1,2,3,4, Min Qi Wang4,5
1Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.
Medical care
|March 2, 2026
概括
人工神经网络 (ANN) 和后勤回归同样预测了老年人医疗保健的使用情况. 这两种方法都有效地识别了高成本患者和那些有重新入院或可预防住院的风险的患者.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 老年医学 老年医学
背景情况:
- 人工神经网络 (ANN) 越来越多地用于医疗保健结果预测.
- 在卫生服务研究中,ANN与传统方法的比较有效性尚未得到充分证实.
- 了解老年人医疗保健利用的预测因素对于资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用安德森行为模型分析社区老年人的医疗保健利用率和成本.
- 为了比较物流回归和ANN对医疗保健结果的预测性能.
- 确定与医疗保健使用相关的关键社会经济,临床和患者报告的因素.
主要方法:
- 使用链接的医疗保险服务费索赔和CAHPS调查数据 (2018-2022) 的横截面研究.
- 样本包括254,748名65岁以上的医疗保险受益者.
- 结果包括高的医疗保险费用,30天的再入院和可预防的住院治疗;模型通过AUC,灵敏度,特异性,PPV,NPV和Brier分数进行评估.
主要成果:
- 慢性疾病 (心脏病,抑郁症),自我评价的健康状况不佳,功能限制,双重资格和较低的教育预测了更高的成本,再入院或住院.
- 人工神经网络 (ANN) 和物流回归模型在所有评估结果中显示了可比的预测性能.
- 关键预测因素根据结果略有变化,但始终强调社会经济和临床因素.
结论:
- 逻辑回归和ANN都能准确地预测使用医疗保险数据的老年人医疗保健利用率和高风险结果.
- 逻辑回归提供了具有强大的预测能力的可解释性.
- 随着越来越复杂和庞大的医疗保健数据集,ANN可能会带来优势.
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