2004-2024年中国大陆结核病发病率和死亡率趋势:控制计划和消除进展
Caini Mu1, Yuncai Jia2, Miaona Feng1
1Department of Infection Control, Xi'an International Medical Center Hospital, Xi'an, China.
Tropical medicine and health
|March 2, 2026
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病控制和控制传染病
背景情况:
- 全球结核病 (TB) 流行病对健康造成重大负担.
- 中国是一个高负担的国家,面临着实现世界卫生组织 (WHO) 2025-2030年结核病目标的挑战.
- 对中国结核病流行病学的分析对于实现控制目标至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国大陆结核病流行病学的时间趋势.
- 提供支持早期实现结核病控制目标的证据.
- 评估干预效应并预测未来的趋势.
主要方法:
- 综合结核病监测和人口数据 (2004-2024年).
- 趋势分析的就业Joinpoint回归 (AAPC).
- 利用中断时间序列和ARIMA模型进行干预评估和未来预测.
主要成果:
- 报告了1948万例结核病例和508000例死亡 (2004-2024年).
- 发病率下降 (AAPC = -2.83%),冬季高峰和夏季低谷.
- 死亡率最初在2010年后下降,但在2021年后上升;预计将严重错过世卫组织的目标.
结论:
- 中国在结核病控制方面取得了进展,但落后于世卫组织的目标.
- 加强精确的预防,诊断/治疗机制和远程监督是必不可少的.
- 需要紧急,有针对性的干预措施来弥合与世卫组织目标之间的差距.
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