机动车道路交通事故的30年发展:未来可以从阴影中出现吗?
Songxiahe Zhao1,2, Zhongjiang Lan1,2, Jinrui Lin2,3
1Department of Orthopedics, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University (The First People's Hospital of Hefei), Hefei, Anhui, China.
PloS one
|March 3, 2026
概括
在全球范围内,机动车道路伤害 (MVRI) 导致脊椎骨折 (VF). 虽然VF在全球范围内下降,但中国没有减少,印度的变化很小,需要针对性的道路安全干预.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 伤害预防 预防伤害
背景情况:
- 机动车道路伤害 (MVRIs) 是导致脊椎骨折 (VFs) 的重要原因之一.
- 了解MVRI相关的VF的时间趋势对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 这项研究重点关注中国和印度,将它们的趋势与全球模式进行比较.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,检查与MVRI相关的VF的时间变化.
- 分析中国和印度的年龄和性别特定模式.
- 将国家趋势与全球模式进行比较,以深入了解伤害机制.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 的数据.
- 使用原始和年龄标准化率 (ASRs) 估计残疾发生率,患病率和寿命 (YLDs).
- 应用联合点回归用于时间趋势分析和年龄-周期-队列 (APC) 建模以解效应.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,与MVRI相关的VF的年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 减少了48.8% (1990-2021).
- 中国没有显著的ASIR降低 (AAPC = -0.478%),而印度的变化很小 (AAPC = -0.013%).
- 男性的发病率始终高于女性,在中国的年轻男性和中国的老年人中风险增加,可能是由于行为因素和机动化.
结论:
- 中国持续高负担的MVRI相关的VF需要有针对性的预防,专注于年轻男性和老年人.
- 印度需要加强道路安全执法和创伤护理基础设施.
- 调查结果强调了中国和印度的异质预防需求,指导了资源分配.
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