在移植患者中开发和验证术后肺部感染的风险预测模型
Ning Pan1, Ying Guo2, Meixia Zhang1
1Department of Urology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong Province, China.
Transplantation proceedings
|March 3, 2026
概括
手术后的肺部感染在移植后很常见. 一个新的风险模型确定了诸如男性性别,多次移植,高血压,心脏病和排斥等因素,以帮助预测和预防感染.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 移植手术 移植手术
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 在移植后,术后肺部感染的高发病率.
- 对这种特定患者群体的风险预测模型的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证移植患者手术后肺部感染的风险预测模型.
- 评估模型的预测效率和临床实用性.
主要方法:
- 765名移植患者 (535名在模型组,230名在验证组) 的回顾性病例对照研究.
- 后勤回归分析以确定影响因素.
- 使用校准曲线和ROC分析构建和验证Nomogram.
主要成果:
- 手术后肺部感染的发生率为24.31%.
- 确定了重要的危险因素:男性性别,多次移植,高血压,心脏病和术后排斥.
- 模型表现出良好的预测性能 (AUC=0.740在导出,0.705在验证) 和校准.
结论:
- 手术后的肺部感染是移植患者的一个重大问题.
- 开发的风险预测模型有效地识别高风险个体.
- 该模型支持早期干预和有针对性的预防策略,以改善患者的治疗结果.
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