通过象征性的贝叶斯网络对腐蚀管道进行物理可解释的残余强度预测
Menghan Chen1,2, Yuxuan Zhang3,4, Yanchen Ye5
1College of Intelligent Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing, China.
Scientific reports
|March 3, 2026
概括
符号贝叶斯网络 (SyBN) 为腐蚀的管道提供可解释的剩余强度预测. 这种机器学习框架通过为关键基础设施安全提供透明,准确的模型来增强结构健康监测 (SHM).
科学领域:
- 结构工程 结构工程
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
背景情况:
- 腐蚀管道的残余强度评估对于天然气基础设施安全至关重要.
- 现有的方法 (实证,FEA,ML) 在适应性,解释性和透明度方面存在局限性.
- 不透明的机器学习模型阻碍了安全关键的结构健康监测 (SHM) 应用.
研究的目的:
- 为预测残余强度引入一种新的,物理可解释的框架 (象征贝叶斯网络 - SyBN).
- 为了提高透明度,将高精度预测与明确的数学模型生成相结合.
- 加强对腐蚀管道结构健康监测的决策.
主要方法:
- 开发了符号贝叶斯网络 (SyBN),集成贝叶斯特征加权神经网络 (BFW-NN) 和深度符号回归 (DSR).
- 实施了自适应性封锁机制,以平衡预测准确性和象征一致性.
- 在管道爆破压力公共基准数据集上验证了框架.
主要成果:
- 赛伯恩实现了最先进的性能,其R2为0.966,RMSE为1.304MPa,MAE为0.968MPa.
- 在贝叶斯特征权重和SHAP值之间显示出高一致性,证实了可解释性.
- 废弃性研究证实了SyBN框架内每个组件的必要性.
结论:
- 在腐蚀管道中,SyBN提供了一种有效和可解释的解决方案,用于预测腐蚀管道的残余强度.
- 该框架为工程师提供了明确的象征模型,提高了透明度和知情决策.
- 这种方法支持对关键基础设施SHM中可解释和可信赖的AI的需求.
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