[在Shennongjia国家公园内的生态系统服务中的协同动态的多场景模拟]
Bin-Bin Zheng1,2, Jie Zeng1,2, Xin-Yu Cui3
1Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China.
概括
未来的土地使用场景会影响沈阳国家公园的生态系统服务. 生态保护促进了碳的储存,而旅游业的发展减少了水产和土壤的保护,强调了有针对性的管理的必要性.
科学领域:
- 评估生态系统服务的评估
- 土地使用变化建模
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 全面的生态系统保护和国家公园的科学管理需要了解生态系统服务 (ES) 的权衡和协同作用.
- 沈龙家国家公园未来的ES动态对于有效的保护战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据不同的发展情景,评估到2050年在沈阳国家公园的土地使用和ES变化.
- 识别和分析ES之间的权衡,协同效应和动态.
- 提出基于ES捆绑特征的有针对性的生态管理策略.
主要方法:
- 利用PLUS和InVEST模型进行土地使用和ES变化评估.
- 使用斯皮尔曼相关性分析和K-means集群来分析ES关系和捆绑.
- 根据自然发展,生态保护和旅游发展情景评估的变化.
主要成果:
- 水产,土壤保护和息地质量下降,特别是在旅游业发展下.
- 只有在生态保护情景下,碳储存量才显著增加.
- 在自然和旅游场景下,ES关系发生了转变,权衡减弱,协同效应加强.
结论:
- 不同的场景导致不同的ES趋势和关系,需要量身定制的管理方法.
- 确定了四种类型的ES捆绑,在各种场景中具有相对稳定的空间模式.
- 拟议的管理策略旨在支持国家公园的整体保护.
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