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使用修改后的布迪科框架量化降雪和积雪覆盖对西藏高原下水流的影响
Yuanhui Yu1, Songlin Yang2, Anran Zhang1
1Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, Yellow River Conservancy Technical University, Kaifeng, China.
Journal of environmental management
|March 4, 2026
概括
气候变暖影响西藏高原的下水. 降低的降雪比率减少了通过保留积雪而流失,而较少的积雪覆盖率通过更快的融化增加了流失,影响了水安全.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变暖减少了西藏高原 (TP) 的降雪和积雪覆盖.
- 对对冲冲的影响的定量评估是有限的.
- 了解这些影响对于亚洲的水安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个新的框架,量化降雪率 (SR) 和雪覆盖率 (FSC) 对TP流水的对抗性影响.
- 改善在气候变化下以雪为主流域的排水预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个新的Budyko框架,将SR和FSC合起来.
- 嵌入的物理过程:降雪时的蒸发限制和融雪时的能源优先级.
- 在TP盆地中分析了SR和FSC的空间差异反应.
主要成果:
- 南部/中部盆地显著减少SR,东北盆地增加SR,导致盆地范围内的SR减少17.0%.
- 降低SR降低了1744%的排水 (增强了雪盖的保留).
- 降低FSC增加了410%的流水 (加速融雪).
- 与传统的Budyko (NSE 0.220.53) 相比,这个新型号实现了更高的性能 (NSE 0.700.87).
结论:
- 结合的框架准确地量化了SR和FSC对冲流变性的对抗作用 (2154%).
- 这些效应被传统模型系统地低估了.
- 该机制框架显著改善了排水预测,支持对西藏高原的水安全评估.
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