计算中的长期电力消耗:指数式增长,随后由于效率提高而稳定
Ricardo Pinto1, Paul E Brockway2, Tiago Domingos1
1MARETEC-Marine, Environment and Technology Center, LARSyS - Laboratory for Robotics and Engineering Systems, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal.
iScience
|March 5, 2026
概括
对信息和通信技术 (ICT) 未来电力需求的担忧可能被夸大了. 长期分析显示,由于效率提高,ICT电力使用稳定,抵消了信息处理的增加.
科学领域:
- 能源研究能源研究
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
- 环境科学环境科学
背景情况:
- 已公布的预测表明,到2030年,信息和通信技术 (ICT) 可能达到全球电力使用的20%.
- 这些预测通常依赖于有限的历史数据 (<5年).
研究的目的:
- 进行第一个全球长期分析 (1975-2022年) 关于ICT电力消耗,处理信息和效率.
- 评估未来电力需求预测的准确性.
主要方法:
- 在47年的时间里,共同估计了电力消耗,处理的信息和效率.
- 分析了从1975年到2022年的趋势,重点关注计算设备在全球电力使用中的份额.
主要成果:
- 电力消耗,处理信息和效率分别增加了4,11和7个数量级.
- 计算设备在全球电力消费中的份额在2013年达到2.5%的峰值.
- 这一份额自2018年以来稳定在1.8%,这是由于效率的提高和设备的转变 (桌面电脑到笔记本电脑到智能手机).
结论:
- 来自计算的未来电力需求可能比以前预测的要少.
- 大型数据中心的效率提高和移动设备的普及是稳定电力使用的关键因素.
- 长期分析为ICT能源足迹提供了更准确的视角.
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