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在三轮车碰撞中伤害严重程度的时间和天气特异性分析:一种异质性意识的建模方法
Zia Ur Rehman1, Chenzhu Wang2, Said M Easa3
1School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
概括
三轮机动力瑞克沙 (3-WMR) 带来了重大的安全风险. 撞车严重程度受天气,时间和超速等因素的影响,雨天增加风险,阳光明的天气与风险较高的行为有关.
科学领域:
- 道路交通安全问题 道路安全问题
- 运输工程 运输工程 运输工程
- 发展中国家的基础设施建设.
背景情况:
- 在发展中国家,三轮机动力力力车 (3-WMR) 非常普遍,造成了相当大的安全隐患.
- 环境条件,时间因素和3-WMR撞击严重程度之间的相互作用尚未得到充分理解.
研究的目的:
- 调查天气和时间变化的联合影响对3-WMR碰撞的严重性.
- 确定3WMR事故中严重或致命伤害的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了警方报告的6年3WMR事故数据 (2017-2022年) 来自巴基斯坦拉瓦尔宾迪.
- 采用了一种部分受约束的时间随机参数逻辑模型,具有平均值异质性.
- 分析了不同天气类型和两年周期的未观察到的因素和时间变化的影响.
主要成果:
- 涉及摩托车,行人,卡车,单车事件,老年司机,高峰时段交通,错误的U转,超速和分心的碰撞增加了受伤的严重程度.
- 这些因素的影响随着天气条件和时间的推移而波动.
- 雨天会增加严重性风险,因为摩擦减少,而阳光明的天气则与超速等冒险行为增加有关.
结论:
- 建议采取适应性,特定于天气的安全对策.
- 策略包括在雨天严格执行速度和加强可见度措施.
- 针对高风险群体的有针对性的培训,如老年骑手,对于减轻3-WMR碰撞严重程度至关重要.
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