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青岛西海岸新区的土地利用变化和生态敏感性:30年分析和未来场景模拟
Tong Zhou1, Jiabin Wang1, Yaning Zhao1
1College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong Province, China.
PloS one
|March 5, 2026
概括
青岛西海岸新区 (QWCNA) 的快速城市化导致了土地利用的重大变化. 生态保护 (EP) 方案提供了到2030年实现可持续发展的最佳途径.
科学领域:
- 生态进化和可持续发展分析.
- 时间和空间的土地使用变化和生态敏感性评估.
背景情况:
- 青岛西海岸新区 (QWCNA) 经历了快速的城市化.
- 了解长期生态趋势对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 揭示QWCNA从1990年到2020年的长期生态演变.
- 预测到2030年在不同发展情景下预测未来的生态趋势.
- 支持QWCNA的可持续发展战略.
主要方法:
- 基于地理信息系统 (GIS) 的土地使用动态指数和转移矩阵分析 (1990-2020年).
- 分析层次过程 (AHP) 用于生态敏感性评估 (1990-2020).
- 补丁生成土地使用模拟 (PLUS) 模型用于未来土地使用预测 (2030年情景:自然发展,城市发展,生态保护).
主要成果:
- 1990-2020年期间发生了重大土地利用转型,由于城市化,建筑和林地以其他土地类型为代价扩张.
- 生态敏感性模式演变,低敏感性区域增加,高和极高敏感性区域显著扩大.
- 未来的模拟表明,到2030年,生态保护 (EP) 场景将最大限度地提高高和极高敏感性区域,与可持续发展目标保持一致.
结论:
- 对于QWCNA的可持续发展,推广生态保护,建议使用EP场景.
- 加强保护工作可能与观察到的更高生态敏感性区域的扩张有关.
- 长期生态监测和基于场景的规划对于QWCNA的未来至关重要.
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