未来乌苏图和西尼罗病毒在荷兰的爆发特征的场景驱动的转变
Mariken M de Wit1, Martha Dellar2, Gertjan Geerling3
1Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Department of Animal Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands. Mariken.dewit@wur.nl.
Scientific reports
|March 5, 2026
概括
未来的气候变化将增加乌苏图病毒 (USUV) 和西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 在荷兰爆发的风险. 预计更高的温度和增加的蚊子数量将导致更大,更快速增长的疫情.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化研究研究气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 蚊子传播的病毒传播受土地使用,气候和人口动态等生态因素的影响.
- 未来的环境变化可能会改变乌苏图病毒 (USUV) 和西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 爆发的风险和强度.
研究的目的:
- 评估未来气候和土地利用情景对荷兰USUV和WNV爆发风险的潜在影响.
- 将一个参考场景与四个不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景进行比较.
主要方法:
- 在四个未来的SSP场景下,模拟了土地利用,宿主分布,蚊子分布和温度的变化.
- 分析了传染季节气温 (1.01.7°C) 和蚊子数量 (510%) 的预测上升.
- 评估了对宿主物种,特别是WNV宿主和它们的丰度的场景效应.
主要成果:
- 所有未来的情景都预测USUV和WNV疫情规模和增长率将增加.
- 疫情加剧在季节早期和高温情景中最为明显.
- 疫情爆发风险的增加在空间上是可变的,南部和东部地区的增加更高.
结论:
- 荷兰未来的USUV和WNV疫情预计将变得更大,增长更快,持续更长时间.
- 温度升高是增加疫情风险的主要驱动因素.
- 缓解气候变化的措施对于降低蚊子传播疾病的风险和影响至关重要.
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