谁需要结束? 使用马科维安可用性模型估计丰富度,用于地理开放的移除采样
Russell W Perry1, Adam C Pope1, A Noble Hendrix2
1Western Fisheries Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Cook, Washington, USA.
Ecology
|March 6, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的移除模型,该模型考虑了开放的种群,在关闭不确定时改进了丰富度估计. 该模型准确地估计了即使有迁移的人口规模,为生态研究提供了有价值的工具.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 移除采样对于估计种群丰度至关重要.
- 传统的去除模型假设在采样期间人口封闭,这往往是不现实的.
- 地理开放和迁移可能会违反关闭假设,偏见丰度估计.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的删除模型,该模型包含马科维安可用性过程,以解决开放的群体.
- 通过招募动态,将当地丰富与超级人口联系起来.
- 提供一种方法来正式测试关闭假设,并在违反关闭时无偏见地估计丰富度.
主要方法:
- 将马科维安可用性过程纳入N混合模型框架.
- 进行了参数识别分析.
- 将模型与来自随机步行运动模型和分析的经验数据的模拟移除数据相匹配.
主要成果:
- 参数识别性得到改善,捕获概率>0.25和3-6个移除样本.
- 当参数可以识别时,丰度估计是不偏见的,除了对采样的行为反应.
- 该模型表明,地鱼的关闭,但检测到移动的青少年鱼的开放.
结论:
- 开发的移除模型有效地处理开放种群,允许进行正式的封闭测试和公正的丰度估计.
- 模型的性能取决于参数的可识别性,受捕获概率和样本大小的影响.
- 经验应用证明了该模型在不同物种的封闭和开放种群之间进行区分的能力.
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