在未来气候条件下更新全球绿色生产成本和配置
Haochi Wu1,2,3,4, Mingyang Sun3, Michael T Craig2,5
1School for Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310027, China.
Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))
|March 6, 2026
概括
气候变化可能会使全球绿色的生产成本增加20%. 需要进行战略投资来管理用于 (H2) 生产的可再生能源资源的变化.
科学领域:
- 能源科学 能源科学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 化学工程是化学工程的组成部分.
背景情况:
- 全球脱碳需要大规模,低碳的 (H2) 生产.
- 可再生能源驱动的电解是一种关键的H2生产途径,将成本与可变资源联系起来.
- 气候变化影响可再生资源的可用性和可变性.
研究的目的:
- 量化气候变化对H2生产可再生能源发电的影响.
- 估计气候变化对全球平价 (LCOH) 的影响.
- 为适应性绿色生产的投资策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用气系统的投资和运营优化模型.
- 在历史和未来气候下,估计的地理显式和区域聚合的LCOH.
- 分析了对用于H2生产的可再生能源发电的影响.
主要成果:
- 在某些地区,气候变化可能会使绿色的生产成本增加20%.
- 大约16%的全球地点可能会经历超过5%的LCOH变化.
- 东南亚和欧洲可能会减少LCOH,而北美可能会增加.
结论:
- 气候变化对成本的影响在地理位置上有所不同,大多数地点的影响都很小.
- 积极的投资策略对于适应气候变化的可再生生产至关重要.
- 具有H2电网进口限制的国家和强大的工业H2需求需要特别注意.
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