从测试到真相:一种错误分类意识的机器学习框架,用于估计野生犬类动物中的血清菌病流行率
Nahal Sarvestani1, Farzane Shams2, Armin Mirshahi3
1Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|March 6, 2026
概括
在全球范围内,野生犬类中常见的布鲁塞洛斯暴露,血清流行率约为8.2%. 确认活跃的布鲁塞拉感染很少见,这凸显了在研究不足的地区需要更好的监测.
科学领域:
- 兽医医学 兽医医学 兽医医学
- 动物传播疾病流行病学
- 野生动物健康 野生动物健康
背景情况:
- 血病是一种重要的动物传播疾病,在野生动物中患病率低估.
- 野生物种的有限监测和偏见的采样阻碍了准确的布鲁塞洛斯暴露评估.
- 野生犬是布鲁塞拉物种 (spp.) 的潜在储存和传播者.
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内估计野生野外野动物的乳菌暴露模式.
- 通过纠正不完美的诊断测试性能来澄清真正的血清流行率.
- 确定需要改进的一体健康监测布鲁塞洛斯的地理区域.
主要方法:
- 对Brucella spp.进行系统的文献搜索 野生犬种 (1962-2025) 的流行研究.
- 使用错误分类意识的多试验模型分析血清学数据.
- 单独考虑确认性聚合酶链反应 (PCR) 和活跃感染的培养结果.
主要成果:
- 野生犬类动物的全球真实血清流行率估计为8.2% (95% CI:5.1-11.3%).
- 确认活跃的布鲁塞拉感染 (PCR/培养) 不常见,为3.9% (95% CI:3.0-5.1%).
- 血清患病率在地理位置上有所不同,南美洲的估计较高 (~18%),欧洲 (~0.8%) 和北美 (~4.1%) 的估计较低.
结论:
- 野生犬显示广泛但适度的血清暴露于Brucella spp.
- 在野生犬类中,已确认的活跃菌感染是罕见的.
- 改善诊断严谨性和有针对性的健康监测至关重要,特别是在非洲和亚洲.
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