陷入衰退的职业:在不断变化的经济中,工人流动的障碍
Xi Song1, Jennie E Brand2, Sukie Xiuqi Yang3
1Department of Sociology, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
Science advances
|March 6, 2026
概括
美国职业重组影响了工人流动. 虽然不断增长的就业机会提供了上升的流动性,但许多在下降领域的工人面临着下降的转型,加剧了不利因素.
科学领域:
- 劳动经济学 劳动经济学
- 劳动社会学工作的社会学.
- 职业流动性研究 职业流动性研究
背景情况:
- 在过去的20年里,美国劳动力市场在工作类型,职业和工人流动性方面经历了重大变化.
- 了解职业重组对工人的职业发展路径的影响对于经济和社会政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析即时和预期的职业重组如何影响2000年至2020年美国工人流动.
- 根据工人是否处于增长,下降或稳定的职业,区分流动性模式.
主要方法:
- 利用了从美国职业前景手册 (Occupational Outlook Handbook) 中获得的2000-2020年期间的行政数据.
- 研究了20多年来职位角色,职业类别和工人过渡的变化.
- 将职业分类为增长,下降或稳定,以评估差异化的流动性结果.
主要成果:
- 与稳定的职业相比,增长和下降职业的工人表现出更高的流动率.
- 显著的大多数 (近60%) 从衰落职业转移的工人经历了下降流动性,经常进入其他衰落的角色.
- 虽然从下降到增长的职业的过渡可以导致上升流动 (近50%的更高工资),但这些途径并不常见 (占所有移动的5%).
结论:
- 职业重组加剧了衰退行业工人的现有劣势.
- 不断增长的职业为上升流动提供了途径,但访问是有限的,这些过渡不是常态.
- 政策干预可能是必要的,以支持工人导航这些结构性转变,并减轻负面的流动性结果.
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