早期癌症负担和风险:一个基于人口的研究
Axelle Braggion1, Bernadette W A van der Linden2, Stefano Tancredi1
1Population Health Laboratory (#PopHealthLab), University of Fribourg, Switzerland; Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), Zurich, Switzerland.
Cancer epidemiology
|March 6, 2026
概括
全球早期癌症的负担正在上升,主要是由于人口增长和老龄化,而不仅仅是风险增加. 这一趋势在早期和晚期发作的癌症中均可观察到,但在特定癌症部位上有显著的例外.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球早期癌症的增加引发了严重的担忧.
- 关于癌症病例数与年龄标准化率的趋势存在混.
- 缺乏早期和晚期癌症趋势之间的比较分析.
研究的目的:
- 描述瑞士癌症负担和早期和晚期癌症风险的趋势.
- 为了比较1982年至2021年间发病率和死亡率的变化.
- 为了区分人口增长和老龄化对增加风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了瑞士国家癌症流行病学和注册研究所 (1982-2021) 的数据.
- 确定的早期发病的癌症是在20-49岁之间被诊断出来的,而晚期发病的癌症则是在50岁以上.
- 计算年度病例,死亡,原始和年龄标准化率,估计1982-1986年和2017-2021年之间的变化.
主要成果:
- 年平均早期发作的癌症增加了48% (+1534例);晚期发作的癌症增加了91% (+19,832例).
- 年龄标准化发病率在早期发作的癌症上升了11%,在晚期发作的癌症上升了8%.
- 人口增长和老龄化解释了73%的早期发病率和90%的晚期发病率的增加;死亡率显著下降.
结论:
- 早期发病的癌症负担的增加主要归因于人口增长和老龄化.
- 增加的风险因素也导致了早期和晚期癌症的增加.
- 在所有年龄组中观察到年龄标准化癌症死亡率的显著下降.
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