调整性行为调查数据以参数化基于人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 传播的代理模型
Jennifer C Spencer1,2, Emily A Burger3,4, Allison Portnoy5
1Department of Population Health, Dell Medical School, UT Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
概括
人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 传播的数学模型从了解性行为中受益. 这项研究使用了国家数据,创建了一个反映不同人群和寿命的HPV风险的模型,成功地复制了现实世界的流行数据.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 对人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 传播的准确建模对于评估干预的有效性至关重要,特别是间接影响.
- 现有的模型在代表寿命性行为模式和人口异质性方面面临挑战.
- 关于性行为的有限数据阻碍了强大的HPV传播模型的开发.
研究的目的:
- 为了参数化,校准和验证异性恋HPV传播模型,使用具有代表性的美国数据.
- 将不同年龄组和性别的详细性行为模式纳入基于代理的模型.
- 改进对HPV风险动态的反映,对个体的寿命和在不同的人口.
主要方法:
- 利用国家家庭增长调查 (2011-2019) 的数据,根据累积的终身伴侣,将个人分为四个性活动组.
- 开发了伙伴关系收购和解散的概率模型,将其整合到基于代理的HPV传播模型中.
- 通过使用国家健康和营养检查调查 (NHANES 2002-2008) 数据对特定年龄和类型的HPV患病率进行校准模型,包括每个伙伴关系的传播和自然免疫效应.
主要成果:
- 校准模型准确地反映了疫苗接种前的HPV患病率分布在定义的性活动类别中,与NHANES估计相一致.
- 模型验证表明,在模拟疫苗接种率时,成功复制了疫苗接种后的HPV16流行数据.
- 该模型的预测与广泛疫苗接种之前和之后的美国HPV流行情况的经验性人口数据密切匹配.
结论:
- 了解随时间变异的性行为模式对于准确捕捉HPV传播动态至关重要.
- 根据累积终身伴侣对性活动进行分类,有效地建模了终身HPV风险,改善了传播和疫苗接种模拟.
- 开发的基于代理的模型为评估HPV疫苗接种策略的长期影响提供了一个强大的框架.
关键词:
校准校准的时间人类乳头瘤病毒 人类乳头瘤病毒性传播感染性传播感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性感染性模拟模型模拟模型接种疫苗 接种疫苗
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