母亲免疫力驱动RSV疾病的年龄相关模式
Clara Brigitta1, David Hodgson2, Graham F Medley3
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Epidemics
|March 7, 2026
概括
孕产妇的抗体对婴儿提供有限的保护,对呼吸道同胞病毒 (RSV) 的保护,在六个月后减弱. 接种母体疫苗可以在未来几年内将婴儿RSV病例减少高达18.4%.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 免疫学 免疫学 免疫学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 呼吸道同胞病毒 (RSV) 是幼儿呼吸道疾病的主要原因之一.
- 母性抗体提供暂时的保护,但它们的有效性和与特定年龄的疾病风险的相互作用尚不清楚.
- COVID-19大流行扰乱了RSV传播,为研究这些动态提供了一个独特的背景.
研究的目的:
- 量化母性免疫对婴儿RSV风险的影响.
- 为了建模因大流行中断而延迟的初级暴露对RSV疾病负担的影响.
- 预测母体疫苗接种对减少婴儿RSV病例的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了儿童RSV的隔间模型,其中包括母体免疫力,减弱的保护和年龄相关的风险.
- 使用2016-2024年的苏格兰监控数据对模型进行了校准.
- 在不同的疫苗接种场景下,对孕产妇免疫力和RSV风险的估计非线性功能,以及预计的疾病负担.
主要成果:
- 只有当感染发生在怀孕晚期时,孕产妇的免疫力才具有保护性,而婴儿的保护性在六个月后会减弱.
- 疫情后,由于暴露时间延迟,RSV负担转移到老年儿童身上.
- 婴儿错过了他们的第一个RSV季节,后来出现了更高的疾病率.
- 预计母婴疫苗接种将在6个月以下的婴儿中减少RSV病例15.3% (2024-25) 和18.4% (2025-26).
结论:
- 母性免疫的时间和免疫机制显著影响幼儿的RSV动态.
- 诸如流行病或疫苗接种计划之类的干扰,可以改变特定年龄的RSV疾病模式.
- 孕产妇接种疫苗有望减少RSV在脆弱婴儿中的负担.
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