绘制全球禽流感风险模式的地图,通过水鸟活动变
Yuzhe Li1,2, Yuxin Qiao1,2,3, Yue Zhan1,2
1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|March 7, 2026
概括
水鸟活动 (WAE) 确定全球禽流感病毒 (AIV) 热点,有助于风险评估. 这一新指标突出显示了艾滋病毒暴露率高的地区,以改善监测和疫情预防.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 禽流感病毒 (AIV) 构成了具有大流行潜力的重大动物性疾病威胁.
- 水鸟是艾滋病毒的关键储存和载体,促进了传播事件到家禽和人类.
- 目前的监测方法可能无法完全捕捉由水鸟移动促进的AIV传播的复杂动态.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证水鸟活动 (WAE) 作为评估全球AIV暴露风险的新指标.
- 确定潜在的艾滋病毒出现和传播的地理热点.
- 为全球AIV监测策略提供信息和增强.
主要方法:
- 使用全球779个水鸟物种的月度分布数据,开发了水鸟活动 (WAE).
- 评估了WAE对预测全球AIV病例的解释能力,重点是H5N1.
- 绘制了艾滋病毒暴露热点的地图,并分析了它们与人类,牛和家禽种群的重叠.
主要成果:
- 对于全球艾滋病毒病例,特别是H5N1.1,WAE的预测准确度很高 (AUC = 0.87 ± 0.001).
- 已确定AIV暴露热点,覆盖全球14%的陆地面积.
- 美国,欧盟,中国和印度的热点地区拥有大量的人口和牲畜,而撒哈拉以南的非洲则呈现出广泛的,监测不足的热点地区.
结论:
- 全球风险评估是识别艾滋病毒暴露热点和加强全球风险评估的宝贵工具.
- 该框架通过考虑水鸟的居住和活动,为潜在的AIV出现提供了关键的见解.
- 在确定的热点地区,特别是撒哈拉以南非洲等报告不足的地区,改善监测对于疫情准备至关重要.
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