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中国陆地生态系统中的理论和实际碳封存潜力

Xiaozhen Wang^1,2, Lei Deng^1,2,3, Philippe Ciais⁴

¹State Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China.

Global change biology

|March 9, 2026

概括

中国中国中国中国.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
气候变化研究气候变化研究
生态系统管理生态系统管理

背景情况:

陆地生态系统对于实现碳中和目标至关重要.
理论和实际的碳捕获潜力 (CSP) 之间的区别尚未得到充分理解.
中国的土地利用在全球碳循环中发挥着重要作用.

研究的目的:

开发一个框架来量化中国陆地理论和实际的碳捕获潜力 (CSP) 到2100.
在各种气候和管理场景下分析CSP.
为优化土地利用提供指导,以实现碳中和.

主要方法:

综合建模框架,包括植被动态和土壤碳.
考虑气候变化的场景分析 (SSP119) 和土地管理 (植树).
量化当前的碳库存,理论的CSP和预计的实际的CSP.

主要成果:

中国目前的陆地碳库存为95.3 Pg C,理论的CSP为166.4 Pg C.
实际的CSP预计将在0.35 Pg C yr-1 (2020-2060) 达到峰值,然后下降.
在实际和理论的CSP之间存在很大的差距 (51.5-57.9 Pg C),可以通过战略森林再生来减少.

结论:

实际的CSP在所有场景中都远远落后于理论潜力.
优化土地利用,包括再造林和低排放,可以大幅缩小CSP差距.
这些发现为中国的碳汇能力提供了定量基线,并为碳中和战略提供了信息.

关键词:

森林植被是为了树木的生长.土地使用变化土地使用变化土壤有机碳土壤有机碳植物碳动态植物

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