基于间隔审查的复发性腺瘤事件和信息查时间预测高级腺瘤的个人风险
Yipeng Wei1, May AlHusseini1, Hormuzd A Katki2
1Department of Statistics, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.
Statistics in medicine
|March 9, 2026
概括
这项研究比较了结直肠癌查预测模型. 脆弱模型提供了对患者病史的卓越准确性,而边缘模型在有限的数据下表现更好,从而实现了个性化的查间隔.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 癌症流行病学 癌症流行病学
- 预防医学 预防医学
背景情况:
- 面板计数数据在癌症查中很普遍.
- 结肠直肠癌查包括根据患者的因素和病史来预测晚期腺瘤风险.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较预测准确度的关节脆弱和边缘模型的先进的腺瘤风险.
- 评估患者查史对预测性能的影响.
- 评估个性化查间隔对于早期检测的潜力.
主要方法:
- 使用非静止波桑过程和半参数考克斯模型实现关节脆弱性模型.
- 使用估计方程估计系数和基线强度函数的估计.
- 从脆弱性模型 (有或没有特定主体脆弱性) 和边缘模型的预测进行比较.
主要成果:
- 当患者查史和腺瘤事件可用时,具有特定受试者的脆弱性模型优于边际模型.
- 边际模型在早期审查和有限查历史的情况下表现更好.
- 从动态预测中得出的个性化查间隔可以导致较早的腺瘤检测.
结论:
- 预测模型的选择 (脆弱性与边缘性) 取决于数据可用性和患者病史.
- 关节脆弱模型通过足够的患者特定数据提高了预测准确性.
- 动态预测支持个性化查策略,改善结直肠腺瘤的早期检测.
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