在气候新奇性下的未来生态系统管理的场景和策略
Lauren T Toth1, Elizabeth T Borer2, Deron E Burkepile3,4
1St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg, Florida, USA.
概括
气候变化导致生态系统的变化. 了解生态系统重组轨迹 - 补偿,衰退或转型 - 对于未来的保护和管理策略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化正在导致占主导地位,形成息地的物种大幅减少,导致生态系统不稳定.
- 随着气候变化的增加,预测生态系统重组对于有效的环境管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在主导物种的衰退之后,探索潜在的生态系统重组轨迹.
- 为保持生态系统结构和功能在气候变化中的积极管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 定义了三种不同的生态系统重组场景:补偿,衰退和转型.
- 强调需要科学家和管理者之间进行合作,以评估生态系统的弹性和气候新性.
主要成果:
- 生态系统可以通过补偿恢复,退化为衰退,或从根本上转变为新的状态 (转变).
- 该研究强调,迫切需要评估管理行动的可行性和功能后果.
结论:
- 预测生态系统重组轨迹对于未来的生态系统管理至关重要.
- 量化当地气候新奇性和生态系统弹性可以指导干预措施以优化生态系统功能和持久性.
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