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气候变化下的全球海洋渔业库存生产力
Shuyang Ma1, Geir Huse1, Kotaro Ono1
1Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway.
Global change biology
|March 9, 2026
概括
气候变化对海洋渔业生产率的影响适度,对不同鱼类种群的影响各不相同. 到2100年,全球渔业生产率可能会略有下降,这与之前的急剧下降预测形成鲜明对比.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 渔业管理 渔业管理
背景情况:
- 海洋捕捞渔业对于全球蛋白质供应和生计至关重要.
- 气候变化对渔业构成重大威胁,可能需要调整管理战略.
- 库存生产率是评估气候变化对渔业影响的一个未充分利用的指标.
研究的目的:
- 量化气候变化对海洋种群生产力的影响.
- 在不同的气候情景下预测全球渔业未来变化的收获潜力.
- 确定影响鱼类种群生产力的关键生物物理驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 利用全球渔业数据库和地球系统模型.
- 应用先进的统计方法,将牲畜生产率估计与环境驱动因素联系起来.
- 全球710种鱼类种群的后期预测和预测库存生产力.
主要成果:
- 全球股票生产率显示区域异质,从1980年到2022年略有下降.
- 海洋温度和叶绿素度对大约一半的评估种群的生产率产生了重大影响.
- 预计到2100年,全球平均生产率下降3.0%在正常情况下,在可持续性情况下下降1.0%.
结论:
- 预计气候变化对全球渔业生产力的影响将是温和的,其中"赢家"和"输家"的平衡.
- 这些发现与先前的研究相反,该研究预测未来的渔业着陆量将大幅下降.
- 有效的管理策略对于减轻区域影响和确保可持续渔业至关重要.
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