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洞察美国预期寿命的停滞从出生队列死亡率的动态美国预期寿命停滞
Leah Abrams1, Octavio Bramajo2, Alyson van Raalte3,4,5
1Department of Community Health, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02143.
概括
美国的预期寿命已经停滞不前,原因是代际和最近的趋势. 1970年以后出生的队列显示死亡率恶化,特别是心血管疾病,影响整体预期寿命.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 美国预期寿命的改善在2010年代停滞不前,尽管有医疗进步和经济增长.
- 之前的研究发现了诸如"绝望死亡"和心血管疾病死亡率等因素,但缺乏对死亡率动态的全面了解.
- 缺乏对出生队列死亡率模式的系统评估,以了解对预期寿命的代际影响.
研究的目的:
- 综合分析1979-2023年美国死亡率动态,重点关注队列和周期效应.
- 为了确定特定的出生队列,推动预期寿命的不利趋势.
- 调查主要原因组的死亡率变化:全因,心血管疾病,癌症和外部原因.
主要方法:
- 利用Lexis图表可视化人口趋势和分析死亡率数据.
- 检查了1890年代至1980年代之间出生的人群的全因死亡率和主要原因组.
- 分析了从1979年到2023年的死亡率变化.
主要成果:
- 队列和周期效应都导致预期寿命改善的停滞.
- 1950年至1959年的出生队列成为一个过渡点,前一组的死亡率有所改善,后一组的死亡率趋势恶化.
- 1970年以后出生的群体在年轻和中年成人中,所有主要原因群体的死亡率都呈现出恶化.
- 广泛的死亡率恶化,主要是由心血管疾病驱动的,从2010年左右开始,几乎影响了所有活着的成年人群.
结论:
- 停滞不前的美国预期寿命是一个复杂的问题,有多方面的原因,不能归因于一个因素或机制.
- 代际模式表明,1970年后出生的人群的死亡率明显恶化,特别是在年轻和中年人群中.
- 这些发现预示着美国长期预期寿命可能会持续停滞或下降.
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