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高分辨率的区域气候预测和马卡罗尼西亚群岛的旅游业影响
Jordi Rodríguez-Rull1, Francisco J Expósito2, Juan P Díaz2
1Grupo de Observación de la Tierra y la Atmósfera, Universidad de La Laguna, Canary Islands, Spain. alu0101616742@ull.edu.es.
Scientific reports
|March 10, 2026
概括
气候变化将改变整个马卡罗尼西亚群岛的旅游适应性. 北方群岛可能会看到夏季条件的改善,而南部群岛可能会从更温暖的冬季中受益,这将影响海旅游.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 旅游地理 旅游地理
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 马卡罗尼西亚群岛 (阿佐尔群岛,马德拉,加拿大群岛,佛得角) 在经济上依赖旅游业.
- 气候变化的影响对这些岛屿经济构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 预测北大西洋马卡罗尼西亚地区海旅游相关的未来气候条件.
- 根据不同的排放情景,评估气候变化对海旅游度假气候指数 (HCIB) 的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了高分辨率的区域气候模型 (RCM),天气研究和预测 (WRF) 模型.
- 采用CMIP6数据和伪全球变暖 (PGW) 方法进行气候预测.
- 在低 (SSP1-2.6) 和高 (SSP5-8.5) 排放场景下,分析了本世纪中期 (2030-2059) 和本世纪末 (2070-2099) 的预测变化.
主要成果:
- 预计在旅游适宜性方面具有显著的度和季节性梯度.
- 北部群岛 (阿索雷斯群岛,马德拉群岛) 显示夏季适合性增加.
- 南部群岛 (加拿大群岛,佛得角) 冬季条件有所改善,这表明高峰旅游的季节性转变.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将改变马卡罗尼西亚群岛的高峰旅游季节.
- 热舒适度是变化的主要驱动因素,而Cabo Verde的审美因素 (云层覆盖) 更有影响力.
- 这些发现支持在这些脆弱的岛屿地区为可持续旅游制定有针对性的,特定于地点的气候适应战略.
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