确定优先污染物NO2,O3,PM2.5和PM10用于预防中国出生缺陷的预防策略:区域分析
Falin He1, Tiancheng Xie2, Xinwen Huang3
1National Center for Clinical Laboratories, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital/ National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, PR China.
Journal of hazardous materials
|March 10, 2026
概括
母亲暴露于空气污染,包括PM2.5和臭氧,会增加胎儿发育的风险,特别是在特定的滞后周. 未来的预测表明,高风险妊娠的空间差异正在扩大,需要有针对性的预防策略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 生殖流行病学 生殖流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 孕产妇暴露于环境空气污染可能会对胎儿发育造成潜在的风险.
- 关于多污染物滞后效应,区域优先污染物和未来风险负担的证据有限.
研究的目的:
- 分析环境空气污染与中国高风险怀孕之间的关联.
- 确定区域优先污染物和关键暴露窗口.
- 在气候变化情景下预测未来的风险负担.
主要方法:
- 在中国215个城市 (2019-2021) 分析了6,910,397例怀孕.
- 使用第二个三个月的母体血清三重查来确定高风险病例.
- 使用滞后加权量子素和 (LWQS) 回归和分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 评估滞后效应.
- 在SSP1-2.6情景下使用CMIP6和ARIMA模型的未来风险预测.
主要成果:
- 高风险率在区域上有所不同,中国中部和北部的患病率更高.
- PM2.5,NO2和O3的滞后效应在6-8周达到峰值,增加了相对风险.
- PM2.5和O3表现出协同效应,而NO2相互作用在很大程度上是对抗性的.
- 到2060年的预测表明,中国西北,西南和中部地区的风险增加,空间差距越来越大.
结论:
- 环境空气污染,特别是PM2.5和O3,显著增加胎儿发育风险.
- 确定了特定区域的优先污染物和关键暴露窗口.
- 有针对性的预防策略对于减轻未来风险至关重要,尤其是在脆弱地区.
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