开发和验证可解释的机器学习模型,用于预测M1乳腺癌患者的生存率
Long Jin1,2, Qifan Zhao3, Shenbo Fu4
1Department of Radiation Oncology, Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Xi'an, China.
Gland surgery
|March 11, 2026
概括
机器学习模型准确地预测了转移性乳腺癌患者的生存率. 关键因素包括乳腺亚型,转移部位和手术,这可能会改善骨转移患者的结果.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 转移性 (M1) 乳腺癌的预后仍然存在争议.
- 在M1乳腺癌中局部治疗的预后价值尚未得到充分确立.
- 可解释的机器学习 (ML) 模型可以预测M1乳腺癌患者的整体存活率 (OS).
研究的目的:
- 为M1乳腺癌患者开发和验证可解释的基于ML的生存模型.
- 确定影响该人口整体存活率的关键预后因素.
主要方法:
- 从SEER数据库中对10,214名M1乳腺癌患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 开发和验证两种ML模型:神经网络和Cox比例危险模型.
- 外部验证使用来自中国的100名M1乳腺癌患者队列.
主要成果:
- 深度学习网络在预测生存率方面表现优于考克斯模型 (一致性指数为0.782比0.650).
- 确定的重要预后因素包括乳腺亚型,转移部位和手术状态.
- 在患有骨转移的患者中,手术与改善的骨存活相关 (5年骨存活率为76.9%vs.27.2%).
结论:
- 外部验证的ML模型准确地预测M1乳腺癌的存活率.
- 乳腺亚型,转移部位和手术状态是关键的预后因素.
- 手术可能有利于患有骨转移的非三阴性乳腺癌患者.
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