在非类固醇抗炎药物使用者的小肠粘膜损伤风险预测模型的开发和验证
Ning-Hui Zhao1,2, Ling-Ran Zhao1, Jia Yao2
1Department of Gastroenterology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, Hubei Province, China.
World journal of gastrointestinal surgery
|March 11, 2026
概括
这项研究确定了非类固醇抗炎药物 (NSAID) 用户中小肠粘膜损伤 (SIMI) 的关键风险因素. 开发了一个预测模型,以帮助临床医生识别高风险个体进行早期干预.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 临床医学 临床医学
- 医学诊断 医学诊断 医学诊断
背景情况:
- 囊内镜提高了小肠病变的检测.
- 高风险群体中小肠粘膜损伤 (SIMI) 的风险因素和特征需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 确定非类固醇抗炎药物 (NSAID) 用户中SIMI的独立风险因素.
- 开发一种SIMI风险在NSAID使用者的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对2012-2025年囊内镜数据的回顾性分析.
- 多变量分析以确定SIMI的独立风险因素.
- 使用ROC,校准和决策曲线分析开发和验证基于名ogram的预测模型.
主要成果:
- 在181名NSAID使用者中,SIMI在114人中被检测到.
- 确定了独立的危险因素:晚年,吸烟,使用质子抑制剂,高BMI,高甘油三和高LDL.
- 预测模型表现出很好的准确性,衍生集的AUC为0.775,验证集的AUC为0.797.
结论:
- 在NSAID使用者中确定了SIMI的重大风险因素.
- 开发了一种对SIMI风险进行验证的预测模型.
- 该模型可以帮助早期识别有风险的患者,并指导临床管理.
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